Top 10 Declining Real Estate Markets 2008

[BSGCORP]

Fortune Magazine has projected the 10 markets in the country that will perform the worst in the coming 2 years. While this does not seem surprising as the markets that are listed have been some of the most volatile in the country, it is interesting to note that last years conventional wisdom list of markets that will crash and burn are no where near this list.
Where are Boston, Washington D.C., and Phoenix. To hear the talk last year these markets were dead and buried. Oh, well, as those guys on TV say, we report, you decide.
Market 2007 Change 2008 Change
Stockton, Calif. -7.1 percent -5.3 percent
Las Vegas -6.6 percent -8.1 percent
Bakersfield, Calif. -5.5 percent -6.6 percent
Santa Ana-Anaheim, Calif. -5.5 percent -4.5 percent
Los Angeles-Long Beach -5.4 percent -4.6 percent
Miami-Miami Beach -4.9 percent -7.5 percent
Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. -4.8 percent -0.8 percent
Oakland, Calif. -4.6 percent -2.4 percent
Fresno, Calif. -4.6 percent -4.3 percent
Fort Lauderdale, Fla. -4.3 percent -4.3 percent

[VegasRealEstate]

Not suprised Las Vegas made it on the list, however I think Las Vegas will be on the road to recovery very soon :)

[Codythebest]

Vegas was a big hit. I hope for you it will recover soon, but honestly, I don't think so...

[carrot]

Kinda surprised to see Sarasota, FL on the list. Usually an affluent area on the barrier islands and lots of condo sales. Great area to retire to. My son went to college there and I just loved the Siesta Key white sand beachs and lime green waters.

[Floridadeals]

I wouldn't be suprised if we see another 10% drop in south florida especially in Miami. Probably not so bad with SFH and worse with Condos

[VegasRealEstate]

Vegas was a big hit. I hope for you it will recover soon, but honestly, I don't think so...

With the opening of Project City Center, Echelon and a few others, Las Vegas will create over 100K (http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2007/Feb-19-Mon-2007/business/12603617.html) new jobs in the next 5 years, the current population cannot absorb that many jobs. We will begin to see many relocating here to fill these jobs, which means, they will by buying and renting homes. This should help absorb some of our inventory :)

[LOTrainer]

With the opening of Project City Center, Echelon and a few others, Las Vegas will create over 100K (http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2007/Feb-19-Mon-2007/business/12603617.html) new jobs in the next 5 years, the current population cannot absorb that many jobs. We will begin to see many relocating here to fill these jobs, which means, they will by buying and renting homes. This should help absorb some of our inventory :)

I am hoping that you're right, Tony! I think you'll be doing just fine either way you look at it, but I definitely think the new project in Vegas will help things out quite a bit!

With regard to the list, I was actually surprised to see Fort. Lauderdale on there!

[johnr]

Vegas Real Estate, any specific reasons why you think that Vegas is going to recover very soon?

[VegasRealEstate]

Vegas Real Estate, any specific reasons why you think that Vegas is going to recover very soon?

I stated why in my last post?

With the opening of Project City Center, Echelon and a few others, Las Vegas will create over 100K (http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2007/Feb-19-Mon-2007/business/12603617.html) new jobs in the next 5 years, the current population cannot absorb that many jobs. We will begin to see many relocating here to fill these jobs, which means, they will by buying and renting homes. This should help absorb some of our inventory.

Las Vegas home (http://www.senasellsvegas.com) sales have increased 4 straight months and should continue to increase through spring and into summer. Project City Center will open in 2009, which will add JOBS! With the increase in jobs, we will see people relocating to Las Vegas to fill these jobs and they will need housing! Some will rent and some will buy.

Like I said, these Las Vegas Strip Projects will add an additional 100K jobs over the next 5 years, there is no way those jobs can be absorbed by the local community, those jobs will be filled by people relocating to Las Vegas!!! Some anticipate we will see a repeat of what we saw in 2004 with home prices rising, but I doubt that will happen, but I do believe our inventory will drop considerably causing home prices to stabalize and maybe even rise a bit!

[Trutzrose]

Hi,

Thanks for the info! It seems the worst is over for the Sarasota Market. 0.85% expected decline is not bad at all, after what we've seen over the past two years. And yes, we do have a volatile matket....thank God. The daily hot sheet stats indicate a strong recovery....!!

Thanks and best to all....TJ

[bmwg84]

I live in Long Beach, CA and I've seen first hand how bad our market has been hit. So, according to this report, NOW is Not? the best time to buy for this area? Or is it?

[jamesww]

I live in Long Beach, CA and I've seen first hand how bad our market has been hit. So, according to this report, NOW is Not? the best time to buy for this area? Or is it?

The answer to this question depends on a couple of things. First, how far has the market fallen in price to this point? Second, how scewed are rents versus what it costs to make a purchase? It would be very safe bet that prices will not fall or at least will not stay at a point where the rents are less than 115% of the PITI for a property. Especially in California! If you can purchase a property at a 5-10% discount from what the current market value is you should be o.k. long term.

[fractional-homes]

It is widely believed that California is going to be hit very hard in the coming months. The houses are so overpriced and there will be so many home owners who have no reason to keep paying for the skyrocketing mortgages - they are much better off walking away from their homes. The banks will suffer from huge losses. This will be the second wave of the mortgage crisis. During the real estate boom, California markets saw huge gains and now the price will come back to earth.

[bmwg84]

It is widely believed that California is going to be hit very hard in the coming months. The houses are so overpriced and there will be so many home owners who have no reason to keep paying for the skyrocketing mortgages - they are much better off walking away from their homes. The banks will suffer from huge losses. This will be the second wave of the mortgage crisis. During the real estate boom, California markets saw huge gains and now the price will come back to earth.

So, when in your opinion is a good time to buy? I simply want a condo near the beach. but am not going to pay 1.3million for it.:rolleyes:

[panamairp]

I was listening to NPR yesterday. I am not sure if they said Florida or Miami (i think they said Miami), but they were reporting that real estate had fallen 20% in price from the year before and sales declined another 8%...

[bmwg84]

I was listening to NPR yesterday. I am not sure if they said Florida or Miami (i think they said Miami), but they were reporting that real estate had fallen 20% in price from the year before and sales declined another 8%...


At the beginning of the year I estimated that 3/4 of the way through the year would be a good time to buy. The way things are looking, 2 years might be even better. Things are going to get BADDDD

[jamesww]

I will reiterate housing prices will not fall much below a point where rents are less than 115% of rents with 5% down. If this happens then myself and investors all across the country will buy the properties up like hot cakes. And prices will turn around very rapidly. I know of numerous real estate trust that would pump as much as 4-5 billion into real estate prices that break that point.

[bmwg84]

I will reiterate housing prices will not fall much below a point where rents are less than 115% of rents with 5% down. If this happens then myself and investors all across the country will buy the properties up like hot cakes. And prices will turn around very rapidly. I know of numerous real estate trust that would pump as much as 4-5 billion into real estate prices that break that point.

unless you're playing with cash, i don't know who is going to lend for multiple house purchases after this lending crisis. there will not be another housing bubble for a long time IMHO

[austinki]

I would guess that the reason that last years cities are not on the list (like phoenix) is that they already went down. My understanding is that phoenix got hit pretty hard.