Thespillzone.com

[michael]

I am working for this company and also a property manager for it. The site is not officially released, although it already has been featured in the seattle times and world broadcast network. Mostly from leaks out to editors of the print media. About a hundred brokers are using it right now during July. It is live as of Friday and already had 1000 hits. It is only a couple days old. Any feedback is appreciated. We are still awaiting and edit from our editor for punctuation/grammer. that will all get fixed. Mostly interested in how you like the feel and look. It will be featured in major publications and will be airing on Television in the next month. You are the first forum it is being shared with. Thanks for the input.

It is all free.
The site gives you a 3 year property forecast of future value on over 60 million homes FOR FREE.......

[kensmith]

Pointless, waste .

[michael]

Your comments on it being a waste is unfortunate. I also read how you feel zillow is all wrong and people should stop talking about it. As a real estate person you must understand that people need tools to determine what, where, how much to pay, and investments strategies. The word tool is used instead of fact. Lets face it even agents(which I am one) are only tools. We are not perfect but we offer one more resource to the consumer.

If you really feel tools are waste than the only people who loose are the consumer.

Now if you feel tools are a good thing, you just want them to be accurate and factual. I understand your concern. On thespillzone.com you can join an EMB (Expert Metro Board) and make the forecast factual. But you must base it on sound experience and not just comments.

A lot of people across the nation are facing a slowing real estate, increased inventories, and yes some cannot get their house sold. As an agent I feel that it is important for me to direct these people and truly know the market that I am in. This includes todays value (whether declining in an area or increasing). As well as, the expect investment return over the next few years as the market softens.

Either way I will be a tool for my clients. I encourage my clients to use on-line resources.

One more point...thespillzone.com has a place where any agent can put a free advertisement up under the modify screen. So if a user is skeptical it is a way for them to seek advice of an agent. Agents need to be close to these internet tool. This one is even free for the agents advertising. You can also participate with the tool and register your name or other agents names...this way all clients can come to you for final advice. Millions will be viewing this. Take the time to understand how you may help these people and guide them.

[kensmith]

Nobody can say what will happen three years out. If you talked to most agents last fall in my market they would have said things are strong and will stay that way, then we had the slowest spring in a long time and everyone thinks its now a buyers market (which it isn't yet).

99% of agents just react to what is going on around them today. They have no idea how economic factors will effect them, what war means to the industry or interest rates, heck most don't have a clue what factors go into mortgage rates. So please tell me how you are going to use your magic wand and predict something that economic forecasters with HUGE budgets and staff can't even do accurately?

It can't be done and that is why it's pointless. Heck at that info provided by zillow with closed sales is at least sort of helpful, just it's very incomplete and that is dangerous. You don't even provide that, it's just an unsubstantiated computer prediction.

Also what makes you think your service has enough value that someone would come to your site over say Zillow?

I am sure that you think you have the best thing since sliced bread, but it's just like every parent thinking their newborn baby is so cute...most aren't and worse most of them are just plain ugly.

[michael]

You had two questions from what I gather.
1. Zillow versus thespillzone.com. Thespillzone.com is not a competitor to zillow but only a complimentary tool. Zillow shows current home valuation based on county and other reported data sets. As you would say "those are inaccurate". It is correct that zillow is not perfect but it does have some accuracy of historical reporting data. If gives a user a starting point.
2. You say Thespillzone.com may be inaccurate like everything else in the world. Thespillzone.com gives you a forecast based on a sound statistical model, one that is an econometric model very simliar to what our government uses. Again you would say "those are inaccurate". It is correct that no historical regression analysis is perfect but they are widely used for things like "weather predictions", "economic indicators", "stock portfolios", "investor portfolios".

Why should a real estate buyer not have the same exact tools that the government and investors for other items like stocks have?

I think if you had your way you may eliminate the computer because it is useless and not a tool that gives accurate information.

The computer is an incredible tool, you should use it as a tool and realize that productivity is gained, even when it is not a perfect instrument.

[kensmith]

lol. I make way to much money with my computer and with the web to think it should go away. I just wish sites would stop putting out numbers as if they are fact when they aren't.

Your model uses national stats I assume, or have you taken the time to find out what is going on in the thousands and thousands of markets out there. Sites like your forget that real estate is a LOCAL business and no model can take that into it. Do you know what the job forcast is in my area? do you know what building permits have been issued? do you know what zoning issues have come up that are effecting builders? do you know what is happening with our rental market, do you know what is happening with our condo conversion market, do you know the hundreds of factors that make up a local makert for each of the markets that you are claiming to be giving sound advice about?

.....Nope and there is no way you can. So I will say again your numbers are pointless and unsubstantiated.

[michael]

Do you know what the job forcast is in my area? (yes, it is on the reports as well)

do you know what building permits have been issued? (yes it is in the model)

do you know what zoning issues have come up that are effecting builders? (yes we use information from NAHB and many of these types of items are used)

do you know what is happening with our rental market, (yes it is part of the forecast model and also part of the residential rental model as well)

do you know what is happening with our condo conversion market, do you know the hundreds of factors that make up a local makert for each of the markets that you are claiming to be giving sound advice about?
(We have certified brokers, in which already a couple of hundred have already signed up to discuss issues that are local and may impact a property forecast..it is free to sign up...see the modify screen)